Contents
- Blackjack Deviation Chart Printable
- Blackjack Deviations From Basic Strategy
- Blackjack Top 20 Deviations
- Blackjack Betting Deviations
- Standard Deviation Blackjack
- Blackjack Card Counting Deviations
![Blackjack Strategy Deviations Blackjack Strategy Deviations](/uploads/1/3/8/4/138446162/136048906.png)
Here the distribution of blackjack outcomes predicts you will win or lose 19.77 units 68% of the time you play 300 hands, 95% of the time you will fall within 2 standard deviations and win or lose 39.54 units and 99.7% of the time you will fall within 3 standard distributions and win or lose.
Card Counting Is Easier Than People Think
![Deviations Deviations](/uploads/1/3/8/4/138446162/490271603.jpg)
It isn’t memorizing all the cards that come out of an 8 deck shoe. Instead, it is just knowing the difference between the number of small cards and the number of big cards.
Not all blackjack playing deviations are created equal. Though we strongly recommend that you learn the top 18-20 deviations, in this video Colin shares which two provide the most value to a. A blackjack deviation is any occurrence when the player adjusts their play to make a decision that is outside the realm of basic blackjack strategy. Most blackjack deviations can be broken down into one of two types. There are betting deviations and playing deviations. ? Click to Visit My Favorite Casino ?.
People unfamiliar with card counting tend to think that it requires great memorization and this simply isn’t true. The misconception is that one must keep track of every single card to be successful.
Blackjack Deviation Chart Printable
The reality is that the player simply groups cards with a point system as follows:
2, 3, 4, 5, 6: +1
7, 8, 9: 0
T, J, Q, K, A: -1
2, 3, 4, 5, 6: +1
7, 8, 9: 0
T, J, Q, K, A: -1
Here is a graphical version of the groupings:
Getting rid of low cards is a good thing so we score positive points when that happens.
Mid cards are neutral so we don’t have to keep track of them.
Getting rid of broadway cards is bad, we need those big cards for blackjack! Our count loses points/value when these great cards get used up.
Mid cards are neutral so we don’t have to keep track of them.
Getting rid of broadway cards is bad, we need those big cards for blackjack! Our count loses points/value when these great cards get used up.
We only need to know the difference between the number of small cards that have been used up and the number of big cards. It’s as simple as that.
Hand Example
It’s the first hand of the shoe. I stand on T4 since the dealer is showing a 6. He then shows a 2 as his other card. He hits and gets a Jack (J).
What is the count at the end of this hand?
If you answered +1 then you’re right. Here are the details:
T: -1
4: +1
6: +1
2: +1
J: -1
—–
total: +1
T: -1
4: +1
6: +1
2: +1
J: -1
—–
total: +1
This is the running count but what really matters is the true count. We’ll get to the true count later.
Another Hand Example
As we saw above, the first hand of the shoe gave us a running count of +1. We’re now on the second hand and it goes like this:
Me: AQ
Dealer: 5K7
Dealer: 5K7
Here are the count details for this second hand:
A: -1
Q: -1
5: +1
K: -1
7: 0
—-
total: -2
A: -1
Q: -1
5: +1
K: -1
7: 0
—-
total: -2
What is the running count now? It was +1 at the start of this second hand. The second hand deducted 2 points from the running count so now the running count is -1.
Running Count
The running count is the sum of the individual counts of all hands in the shoe.
If the individual count of the first hand in the shoe is +1 then the running count is +1. If the second hand in this shoe has an individual count of -2 then the running count becomes -1. If the third hand in this shoe has an individual count of +3 then the running count becomes +2.
Blackjack Deviations From Basic Strategy
True Count
The true count is the running count divided by the number of decks left in the shoe. For example, if there are 2 decks left in the shoe and the running count is +4 then the true count is +2. On the negative side, if the running count is -6 and there are 2 decks left then the true count is -3.
Betting Strategy
If the true count is near 0 or below 0 then players bet the minimum. Players bet more as the true count gets high above 0. We use a betting system where the betting unit is the same as the table minimum. Starting with +1, every one point increase in the true count adds another betting unit.
Here is our betting strategy on a $10 minimum table:
Count 0 or Less: bet $10
Count +1: bet $20
Count +2: bet $30
…
Count +x: bet 10*(x+1)
Count +1: bet $20
Count +2: bet $30
…
Count +x: bet 10*(x+1)
Our blackjack betting strategy section has more details on the thinking behind our betting strategy.
Card Counting Systems: Hi Lo vs Hi Opt
Everything we’ve explained here is for the Hi Lo card counting system. The Hi Opt card counting system is almost the same thing except that in Hi Opt the deuces and aces are not counted. In other words, in Hi Opt both A and 2 are 0 instead of -1 and +1 respectively.
Online Practice
Of course the best way to practice card counting online is to use our trainer tool. Beginners have the option of trying a few hands to make sure they get the right count on each hand individually. Intermediate counters can go through the shoe and see if they are able to keep the correct running count. Advanced players can make sure they are sizing their bets correctly based on the true count.
Offline Practice
Find a deck of cards and deal out all but one while keeping track of the running count. At this point the count is either -1, 0, or +1. No deposit casino bonus codes. Based on this information, you know if the last cards is small, medium, or large. After the last card is dealt then the count is back to zero if you counted all the cards correctly.
Save The Big Bets For Times When Odds Are Good
This isn’t rocket science. Instead of randomly changing the size of bets, players should increase bet sizes when the true count says odds are good.
Importance of Blackjack Variances
The importance of blackjack variances and a proper understanding of variance in gambling cannot be underestimated. Blackjack players can come to think they 'know how to beat blackjack' if they go on a lucky streak, or they might come to think that blackjack isn't their game if they have a high negative variance in the early rounds of their blackjack playing. So given how important variances are to your expectations in blackjack, I'll try to explain what blackjack variance is and why it's important to keep in mind when analyzing your blackjack results.
So what are blackjack variances? To answer that question, I'll need to define a few blackjack terms -- so please bear with me.
Payout Percentages and the House Edge
The short answer is that blackjack variances are the deviations from expected payback in blackjack. 'Expected payout' is the amount of money (as a percentage) that you might expect to win back when betting on blackjack. It is closely tied to the house edge. The house edge exists so the casino stays in business, because casino games are typically weighted in the favor of the casino and against the player. The house edge in blackjack for a player using 'perfect' or optimal basic strategy is only around 0.5%, which means your expected payout will be around 99.5%.
This makes blackjack actually one of the best games in the casino. So for every $100 you bet at the blackjack table, you can expect to win back $99.50. You'll only lose $0.50 on every hundred dollars you spend (if you play perfect strategy, which all new players won't). For those managing expectations, though, the low house edge makes blackjack variances more subtle and more difficult to analyze, at least when you're going with your 'gut' or gamblers instinct.
Blackjack Top 20 Deviations
Variances in Wins and Losses
That's because your expected payout or expectation is only an average. It's a theoretical expecation, and one not likely to occur too many times in your blackjack sessions. Sometimes you'll lose a whole lot more than $0.50 per $100 bet. You might lose $50.00 on a hundred dollar bet, if the cards aren't hitting right. On the other hand, you'll sometimes walk away from the table with more than you started out. You wouldn't play the game if you never won. So you'll win sometimes, but to account for the winning opportunities, you'll lose more than expected at other times. Losing more than you're expected to lose is a variance from your payback expectations, while winning your bets is also a variance from those expectations. Best casino bonuses usa. Therefore, the amount your blackjack session deviates from expectation is the variance.
Blackjack Betting Deviations
Blackjack Deviations
Your results will vary each time you bet on blackjack. Most of the time when playing blackjack, your results will vary widely, from large losses to large wins. Seldom will a player with a 99.5% expectation actually walk away with 99.5% of the money he or she bet. Expectation involves the odds about what you can expect to win or lose over a long period of time. Actually, it's over an infinite number of blackjack hands, because the possibility always exists that you'll just keep winning more than expected or losing more than expected.
This kind of deviation can fool a player at the blackjack table. If you're not a serious player, but just having fun, you might get the sensation you're having good luck or bad luck. You'll get the feeling you're getting lucky and that's that. Where the problem comes in is when you are a professional or serious amateur blackjack player, and you are trying out some new blackjack tips, recently learned blackjack strategy or card counting techniques. Because even really long sessions of blackjack are just a small sampling of the possibilities. Six months of blackjack sessions aren't a tiny sample, when compared to the idea that the expectation is based on a theoretical infinite number of hands. So you're not getting a full picture (or even a half-full picture) about whether your new blackjack method is working. You may just be riding the highs or lows of the blackjack variances.
So the importance of blackjack variances is they can fool us into false assumptions about our blackjack playing. Maybe you'll come away thinking you have learned how to beat blackjack, or you're a much better player than you really are. Or maybe you're doing all the right things, but the cards aren't falling your way. Players need to understand the nature of blackjack variances, then, and learn to analyze their game based not entirely on results, but on the soundness of the strategy being employed. You can make all the right moves and lose, and you can make all the wrong moves and win. That's the essence of blackjack variances. Sometimes you beat the odds.
Standard Deviation
To get an idea about our real expectations when playing blackjack, consider the standard deviation. This will give you some idea of the kind of blackjack variances you can expect. It's pretty interesting, because it shows how small the gambling margins can be in the short term, even though in the long term, blackjack is a negative expectation game.
Standard Deviation Blackjack
You can figure what is called a 'standard deviation'. You might remember this from grade school, where you get an average of a group of numbers, then calculate the standard deviation from that number. In calculating a blackjack standard deviation with a computer software program, though, you won't be testing a select group of five or ten numbers. You'll be testing well over a million deviations.
The standard deviation in blackjack is simply calculating the probabilities you will win or lose and extracting your odds from that. That is, the standard deviation can tell you your odds of winning, losing or pushing when playing blackjack. Without getting too far into the numbers, at least one gambling math expert has figured there are over 723,000,000 (yes, that's 723 million) card combination scenarios where you walk away from the table a winner. But there are over 836,000,000 combinations where you walk away a loser. And there are only a paltry 144,000,000 potential cases where you walk away with the same money you started with or 'push'.
Considering all these numbers as percentages of 100%, the standard deviation will tell you that your chances of walking away a net winner in blackjack is around 42.42% of the time, rounded up. Your odds of walking away from the blackjack table a loser are around 49.10%, rounded up. Your odds of walking away with a push is somewhere around 8.47% of the time.
If you want to read more about the numbers behind blackjack variances and standard deviation, visit the blackjack variance page on the Wizard of Odds website. The Wizard of Odds has run statistical breakdowns of the odds on virtually every major game you'll find in a casino.
Negative Expectation, But With Hope
Blackjack Card Counting Deviations
So blackjack is a negative expectation game. There's a house edge that says you will lose in the long run, if you play an infinite number of hands. But in the short term, you'll walk away a winner 42% of the time. In fact, you'll walk away not losing nearly 51% of the time. And over 91% of the time, you'll experience a variance from the expected payouts in blackjack. Blackjack variances will happen 9 out of 10 times you walk up to the blackjack table. You need to keep this in mind when playing blackjack and analyzing your results.